Wales' route to the 2026 World Cup will be decided in a play-off race

Wales' route to the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be decided in the play-off race against North Macedonia in their final group game.

Wales, who have entered every World Cup since 1950 have only managed to qualify for the final tournament twice: 1958 and 2022, claimed a 1-0 victory against Liechtenstein on Saturday, making them tied for points with North Macedonia.

Both teams have 13 points and are currently competing for the runners-up position to Belgium within the group, but Wales fall short on goal difference with a contrast of five.

Belgium, who lead Group J of the UEFA group qualifiers with an advantage of two points, are set to face Liechtenstein in Liege where a win would automatically guarantee their qualification as the group winner.

Although a draw against Liechtenstein - who after losing all seven group games have been eliminated - might be enough to secure Belgium's qualification place, due to their substantial goal difference.

The battle for second, will be determined in Cardiff on Tuesday in the clash between Wales and North Macedonia. The host's disadvantage on goal difference means that a draw would suffice for the visitors, meaning Wales have no option but to win in order to secure second in the group.

However, even without a win on Tuesday, the Dragons are certain to have a place in the March play-offs as one of the UEFA Nations League group winners.

Due to this, they will automatically be amongst the lowest seeds in the draw for the semi-finals. But will mean they will have to claim an away from home win against a team ranked as one of the highest seeds.

Opposingly, if Wales beat North Macedonia, they would be guaranteed a home semi-final in the play-offs.

Since all group qualification fixtures finish on Tuesday, the seed rankings will be confirmed on Wednesday ahead of the draw on Thursday for the play-offs.

The semi-finals will take place on Thursday, 26 March 2026, with the finals scheduled for Tuesday, 31 March.

The winners of these finals will take the remaining four European spots in the World Cup.